Analysis of China LPG Market Demand and Import Volume in 2017
(I) The average compound annual growth rate of China's liquefied gas production and consumption in the past six years was 9.95% and 15.69%, respectively, and its dependence on foreign countries increased to 29.70%
With the release of new domestic refining capacity, the increase of catalytic cracking capacity and the large-scale production of large-scale ethylene plant, the supply of domestic liquefied gas has been on the rise since 2010. In 2011, the output of liquefied gas in China will reach 21,808,600 tons. By the year 2016, the output of liquefied gas will reach 3,503.90 million tons with an average annual compound growth rate of 9.95% from 2011 to 2016.
In the consumption of liquefied gas, due to the development of alternative fuels such as natural gas, the growth of liquefied gas for fuel use has slowed down. The rapid development of deep processing of liquefied gas has driven the rapid growth of liquefied gas consumption. In 2011, the apparent consumption of liquefied gas in China was 240,467,700 tons, reaching 39,990,900 tons in 2015. The apparent consumption of liquefied gas in the whole year of 2016 reached 49,841,000 tons, with a CAGR of 15.69% from 2011 to 2016. The degree of external dependency increased from 9.31% in 2011 to 29.70% in 2016.
(II) The consumption structure of liquefied gas leans to the industrial area, especially in the field of propane dehydrogenation
In terms of consumption structure, the major downstream consumption areas of liquefied gas in China include civil, industrial (including chemical raw materials) and transportation. Affected by the rapid construction of natural gas pipelines in cities in China and changes in the way energy is used by residents, the civilian liquefied gas market in cities is gradually replaced by natural gas and electricity, and the demand for civilian liquefied gas is shrinking. However, as the per capita income of rural households increased, the demand for liquefied civil gas in rural areas continued to grow, easing the replacement of civilian liquefied gas to a certain extent. In addition, the rapid development of PDH has driven the consumption of liquefied gas in the chemical industry, which is also the reason for the rapid growth of liquefied gas imports in the past two years. In 2005, China's civil aviation, industrial and transportation sectors accounted for about 71%, 23% and 6% respectively of the consumption structure of liquefied gas in China. By 2015, civil, industrial, transportation and others account for about 62%, 32% and 6% respectively %, Showing a substantial increase in the proportion of industrial use.
LPG industrial use is mainly based on different sources and different components for further processing. At present, there are many sources of domestic liquefied gas sources, liquefied gas components from different sources have some differences, the corresponding direction and approach in the deep processing also have different options. For example, the composition of imported liquefied gas is propane or butane. The liquefied gas of the field is mainly propane and butane, which is suitable for the dehydrogenation of alkanes.
Since the "12th Five-Year Plan", China's deep processing of liquefied gas has shown a rapid development trend. Investment aromatization, alkylation and propane (butane) dehydrogenation have taken place repeatedly. According to preliminary statistics, by the end of 2014, the domestic production capacity of various types of deep-processing plants with liquefied gas as the main raw material will exceed 40 million tons / year.
Utilization of unsaturated components (olefins) in liquefied gas includes isobutylene and n-butene. Most of the isobutylene for the production of MTBE, and then as high-octane gasoline reconcile component or cracking high-purity isobutylene and downstream products to traditional refining, ethylene enterprises. N-Butene is usually used after the extraction of ethylene four butane-1 as a polyethylene unit comonomer, in addition, you can also produce the oil component of the target aromatization, alkylation, isomerization, acetic acid secondary Butyl and methyl ethyl ketone, 2-propylheptanol, butadiene and the like which are targeted at the production of chemical raw materials.
Utilization of the saturated components (alkanes) in liquefied gas includes propane and butane. Propane is mainly used for the dehydrogenation of propylene to propylene. As the threshold of PDH is lower than that of oil refining and ethylene, the international propane supply brought by the large-scale development of North American shale gas has risen sharply and driven by the strong downstream market demand. Butane mainly includes n-butane and isobutane. The main chemical use of n-butane is n-butane oxidation of maleic anhydride. Relatively traditional benzene maleic anhydride has certain cost advantages and environmental protection advantages. There are mainly three major directions for the processing of isobutane: 1) alkylation using isobutane and butene as raw materials; 2) propylene oxide and MTBE produced by co-oxidation with isobutane and propylene as raw materials; 3) isobutane Dehydrogenation gives isobutene to produce MTBE and downstream chemicals.
Overall, judging from the development trend of the industry, the domestic industries such as MTBE, aromatization and alkylation of the olefin components in liquefied gas have been over-produced, and investment hotspots have shifted to industries that utilize alkane components , Such as propane dehydrogenation.
(C) China's imports of liquefied gas prices increased, of which imports from the United States substantial growth
Liquefied petroleum gas in our country has been in a net import state for a long time since the import and export of liquefied petroleum gas in the past decade. Since 2014, the imported liquefied gas has risen sharply. From 2014 to 2016, the import volume of liquefied gas in China was 710.13 million tons and 12.0787 million tons respectively. And 16,124,900 tons, an increase of 68.65%, 70.22% and 33.40% respectively over the same period of last year. In 2014, 2015 and 2016, the average import prices of liquefied gas in China were 842.51 US dollars / ton, 510.07 US dollars / ton and 380.41 US dollars / ton respectively, showing a sharp downward trend.
PDH plants have high purity and low sulfur requirements for feed gas. Domestic propane mainly comes from the refinery with high sulfur content, while imported liquefied gas (propane and butane) comes mainly from high purity and low sulfur liquefied gas in the Middle East and North America. Mainly from the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and the United States, of which imports from the United States in 2014 and in 2015 were 753,000 tons and 2,694,000 tons respectively, accounting for 15.8% of the total respectively % And 31.5% respectively in 2015, an increase of 357.8% over 2015.